As Ukraine’s most serious corruption case of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s tenure is spilling over and over, public trust in the president is falling both in Ukraine and among Ukraine’s supporters, particularly, in the United States. There is good reason to state that this is the highest-profile Ukrainian corruption case since the Revolution of Dignity.
An anti-corruption investigation into a multimillion-dollar kickback scheme – codename Midas – has implicated close friends and business partners of President Zelenskyy, weakening him both at home and on the international stage as pressure on the battlefield intensifies. Polls show that trust in Zelenskyy has sharply fallen.
Following the investigation, Zelenskyy’s approval dropped nearly 40 percentage points and is now below 20 percent which is the lowest mark since his election in 2019. (After the Russian invasion, the president’s approval was about 90 percent.)
Considering that Zelenskyy came to office in 2019 on a wave of public outrage over corruption and, adding that since 2022, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have lost their lives in the full-scale war with Russia, we have good reason to call every cent of this corruption case ’blood money’.
According to the Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies, contractors of state-owned nuclear energy company ’Energoatom’ had paid $100 million in kickbacks (10 to 15 percent per contract) to a criminal organization led by Zelenskyy’s close associate Tymur Mindich who fled Ukraine to escape the investigation. Despite President Zelenskyy states that he focused on the war and he did not know anything about this corruption case, this is quite unrealistic. And, at this point, it is impossible to skip one certain issue namely that the pressure of an unfolding corruption scandal has reached the Ukrainian presidency at a time when the US is pressuring Kyiv to make concessions to Russia.
’There comes a moment in the life of every nation when everyone needs to talk things through. (…) Right now is one of the hardest moments in our history. Right now, Ukraine is under some of the heaviest pressure yet. Right now, Ukraine may find itself facing a very tough choice. Either the loss of our dignity or the risk of losing a key partner.’, the Ukrainian President said in his address to the nation on the Day of Dignity and Freedom 21 November.
’Friendship or dignity’, Zelenskyy described the two options which were allegedly offered him by Washington, although it should be noted that, in this speech, he in fact talked about the 28-point US peace plan.
Given the Ukrainian military, the intelligence services and the anti-corruption watchdogs receive high quality and confirmed intel from the respective US agencies on a daily basis, Zelenksyy, and this is key, must have been aware that, after 11 days the corruption case erupted, the time to make his choice had come, and the issue of the peace plan and surviving the corruption scandal has turned into a 2 in 1 thing.
Power Struggles and Political Fallout
Recent developments in the country, especially the painful measures Zelenskky has taken in Ukraine’s ever biggest corruption scandal have not left any doubts regarding the Ukrainian president’s choice.
For the United States’ continued support, both military and political, President Zelenskyy has got rid of some of his loyal supporters, including top government officials. Most importantly, he dismissed his top aid, the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak who has been running the show in foreign affairs non-stop during the full-scale invasion.
It is worth noting that after Donald Trump was re-elected in 2024, Yermak’s fortunes took a U-turn. While he was in constant contact with former U.S. President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, members of Trump’s team did not want to talk to him. And this proved to be key in this story which, eventually led to Yermak’s resignation. Andriy Yermak’s departure from Ukrainian politics was not a low-profile dismissal but rather a loud political act accompanied by raids and searches of the Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies performed by a dozen of employees from NABU and SAPO. Ukrainian anti-corruption squads entered the government district in Kyiv in the early hours on 28 November and performed searches in Yermak’s office and home. The contents of the several phones and laptops seized during the searches at his residence are being examined.
’I have been desecrated, and my dignity has not been protected’, Andriy Yermak said in his comment to The New York Post after he submitted his resignation following the searches. After sending this emotional message, he stopped answering calls, the American journal notes.
Following Yermak’s resignation, Zelenskyy reshuffled the Ukrainian negotiation team which travelled to Miami to discuss the peace plan with the US.
Given that Yermak has been Ukraine’s chief negotiator, his sudden departure has left a really big hole in the entire Ukrainian foreign diplomacy, including the peace talks. Following Yermak’s dismissal, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov (former Defence Minister) was appointed by Zelenskyy to lead the Ukrainian delegation for ongoing peace negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war.
It should be noted that, on 26 November, Umerov was also questioned by the anti-corruption bureau with regard to Special Operation Midas. Experts concern that the authorities will find kickback schemes in the defence sector, similar to those at the energy companies.
In addition to the developments in the large-scale corruption scandal, the fact that one of the issues that the Ukrainian and US delegations have been discussing in Florida on 30 November was the timing of elections in Ukraine, according to The Wall Street Journal, signals that the abovementioned 2 in 1 idea is not a mere hypothesis. Based on the results of public opinion polls, the current steps made by Zelenskyy are not enough to convince the Ukrainian society that something really changed since the fact that presidential aides, ministers and other officials implicated in the investigation makes it clear that the problem is bigger than ever, which is very likely due to the war.
The biggest concern is that the recent corruption scandal weakens not only President Zelenskyy but it weakens Ukraine.
International Reverberations and the Domino Effect
Over the past four years, the Ukrainian government ’systematically sabotaged’ oversight of the country’s state-owned companies and weapons procurement processes, ’allowing graft to flourish,’ a New York Times investigation published on 6 December revealed. The report details how the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy sidelined outside experts from the US and EU serving on advisory boards responsible for monitoring spending, appointing executives, and preventing corruption. The article not only reveals how state-level corruption in Ukraine works, but also clearly shows how position of the US regarding Zelenskyy and his presidency has changed.
With the assistance provided to the Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies resulted in Operation Midas, the US made clear that despite the fact that, for decades, Ukraine has been synonymous with the word ’corruption’, and it was tolerated by various US administrations, US President Donald Trump will no longer maintain this practice.
What is sure that all involved in the corruption case are close to Zelenskyy. Although Yermak’s resignation has definitely changed the landscape of Ukrainian politics, but the problem is not just Yermak himself. As a result of the corruption case, political pressure is growing on the presidency and suspicions are growing about Zelenskyy’s personal involvement not to mention that the scandal frustrates Ukraine’s European allies that wanted anti-corruption being the lead in the country’s EU bid. In this term, the scandal has definitely undermined Ukraine’s position on the international stage.
A demand that Ukraine must first get itself in order before thinking about joining either the EU or NATO now seems quite legitimate.
Let’s not forget that even though Tymur Mindich was the main suspect in the anti-corruption investigation, the hunt for the embezzled $100 million is still going on. It is also important to stress that the real target was probably not Mindich, or even Andriy Yermak. With this case, President Zelenskyy has received a strong warning from Washington: either he accepts the US peace plan, or the case will continue to unfold.
A domino effect – who knows who will be the last domino to fall?
Last but not least, it should be noted that this anti-corruption investigation can easily be a problem not only to Zelenskyy, but also in Brussels, as some traces of the investigation – a fraud in the amount of $48 billion which is being investigated by the US Department of War – lead from Ukraine, in particular from the Ukrainian President to certain European capitals, latest reports suggest.
A large part of the money was allegedly deposited in Estonian banks. Moreover, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, may also be involved, Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst claims.
With this allegation in mind, it can be concluded that with Operation Midas, the US authorities, and the FBI in particular, have sent a message to European leaders as well that it is better not to obstruct US peace efforts, otherwise potentially compromising information involving them could also be made public.
Despite both Ukraine’s and the EU’s leadership quite often refers to it, in this story, dignity has long been lost. What remains is a stubborn clinging to power, right until the last domino.